For English cricket, beating Australia in Australia is the holy grail: winter nights spent huddled around the television or radio, tuning in to majestic, bright Antipodean skies thousands of miles away, all whilst beating the Aussies in their own backyard – cricketing paradise. Unfortunately, though, that is rarely the case.
The last two visits Down Under has seen a cumulative score of 9-0, with the hardy souls who braved the terror wishing they had turned off long ago in favour of a decent night’s sleep. Indeed, there have been only five successful trips from an English perspective since the end of World War II. Much of the focus on England’s recent short-comings lay on the one-dimensional pace attack, with too many 80mph right-arm over bowlers offering no variance or challenge to the Australian batsmen as they bashed the feeble Pommie bowling to all parts.
Almost as soon as last year’s dramatic cricketing summer came to an end, such is the fixation on overcoming their oldest enemy that attention almost immediately turned to how Joe Root and his men would set about retaining the Ashes 26 months later, with the need very much for speed.
Now, with an embarrassment of riches in the fast-bowling department, the task is to cut down the crop to a sensible number to board the plane. Here, we will analyse the data of current stock of pacemen all vying for a place in the squad, and look at who may be best suited to help their nation try and wrestle the Urn back to Blighty.
Who is fighting for selection?
With a touring party generally featuring either 16 or 17 squad members in total, the space allocated here will be for six players. There is a mixture of experienced professionals with hundreds of Tests, current fringe players and ones yet to make their debut on the international stage but have impressed for the England Lions. Those in contention are listed below, alongside three other measurements (NB: Bowling Type as specified by ESPN CricInfo, with Fast-Medium applied to those listed as either that or Medium-Fast given its interchangeable use on the site).
With legendary pairing James Anderson and Stuart Broad very much in their twilight years, the duo are included here given that both have explicitly stated their desire to continue until this series. They have a plethora of experience all around the globe, and their knowledge and support would be vital for any young bowler to learn off.
Pace, bounce and variety
With the drier, bouncier Australian wickets, extra speed to hurry the batsmen is vital if a team wishes to be successful. Whilst bowlers who lack pace can account for this with lateral movement in England, this does not suffice in Australia due to the generally flatter pitches but mainly the less-conducive Kookaburra ball used. Left-armers can also be key in that their trajectory of release is different from a right-armer and so challenges batsmen to adapt to this change as a result.
Looking at the top 50 wicket-taking bowlers in a series in Australia over the past ten years, we can see how height and speed has impacted their wicket-taking ability. Those highlighted orange are express fast bowlers, whilst the effect of a bowler’s height can be witnessed in the second graph below.
With bowlers that have taken over 20 wickets in a series, of which there are 12, seven of these instances have been from a fast bowler and ten have been a fast bowler of at least 6’1” (185cm) in height. Crucially, of those overall 12, only once has a bowler been on the losing side (Broad with 21 wickets in the 2013/14 Ashes series) – showing the importance of having a man capable of consistently making inroads into an opposing batting order.
The need for pace, bounce and variety is highlighted the clearest by the fact that, of the entire data set, just under half (24/50) are genuinely fast bowlers. Of the remaining 26, only three are not above 6’0” in height, and of those final three, two are left-armers – leaving the metronomic, accurate, 5’9” Vernon Philander as the only outlier. The fact that only one player is outside any of these three parameters just goes to show the value in having bowlers who can trouble batsmen in different ways.
Transferring this analysis to the current crop of English bowlers, the speeds capable of being generated by Mark Wood and Jofra Archer mean they are surely a shoo-in, fitness provided. Meanwhile, Sam Curran’s position as the only left-armer currently in debate means he too is surely going to find himself on the plane, both for his different angle but also his all-round abilities too.
There is only one player in the listed group above who does not fit into the category of either being express pace, above 6’0” tall or a left-armer: Lewis Gregory. Given that he doesn’t have any of the desired characteristics, and with the fact that he will be 29 by the time the series begins, means it is hugely unlikely that he will make the cut given he is not one for the future either. With a host of others ahead of him, his route appears to be blocked.
A place for experience?
Given that the importance of pace and bounce has already been outlined, this could lay question marks over the need for Broad and Anderson in the squad due to their relative lack of pace, and their success in favourable home conditions where they are so dangerous at punishing any technical flaw with their ability to produce lateral movement.
Looking at their records in Australia, although the team as a whole has not had success recently, their individual performances have been pretty good.
Although the economies of all Australian bowlers were significantly better than their English counterparts in 2013/14, Broad was the third-highest wicket-taker with 21, one behind Ryan Harris in second, whilst Anderson was the most economical bowler on both sides with a respectable wicket tally of 17 four years later.
They have a combined 30 Tests in Australia between them, and were both part of the historic victory in 2010/11, albeit Broad was forced to withdraw injured after the second match, whilst Anderson was the leading wicket-taker as he collected 24 wickets at an average of 26.04. If they are unable to be a genuine wicket threat their proven nous and knowhow could be vital, whilst their ability to tie up an end with a miserly economy rate would be crucial in allowing their teammates to rotate and be more aggressive at the other end.
If Root is looking for a more varied, quicker attack then there is every chance that the pair may be used alternately and not together, especially when considering their ages and the ruthless nature of the Ashes. However, to leave out two men from the travelling squad with over 1,000 Test wickets between them would be unthinkable.
There’s only two Chris Woakes’
The performances of Chris Woakes home and away are like two completely different players. Lacking the elite level of control possessed by Messrs Broad and Anderson, he is arguably the one English bowler who relies the most on favourable conditions and a swinging ball.
For context, he is the fourth-lowest averaging English pace bowler at home with a minimum of 50 wickets with 22.36, behind only Sydney Barnes (13.38), Fred Trueman (20.04) and Alec Bedser (21.55). However away from home his average more than doubles to 51.68, whilst on his only Test tour to Australia he picked up ten wickets in four games at an average of 49.50. His record can be seen below.
Given that he is a genuine all-rounder too, his batting has been another string to his bow that has enabled him to impact the game in more than one facet – but that too has declined recently. Since his 137* against India at Lord’s in 2018, he is averaging just 11.86 against a career average of 25.6, reaching double figures just five times in his 16 innings’ in that time.
With fierce competition for places now, Woakes is very much under threat for his place when the side plays away from home. Whilst there can be no doubting his ability at home with the swinging ball, his lack of impact when conditions are not in his favour will harm him significantly when the time comes to choose a squad to try and wrestle back the Ashes. The last tour came at a time when Mark Wood, although he had made his Test bow, was hampered by injury, and it was prior to the emergence of left-armer Sam Curran and firecracker Jofra Archer. With a host of names now fighting for limited positions, a place for Woakes looks to be unlikely.
The untested
With a number of inexperienced or untried players included as possibilities, there is limited-to-no past international data to judge their abilities on. Warwickshire paceman Olly Stone is a place liked a lot by the England hierarchy given his raw pace, catching the eye in his solitary Test and four ODIs to date. He has shown that he can extract life out of even the tamest pitches – a number of fiery deliveries in Sri Lanka attested to this – and the fact that he is consistently in-and-around the Test squad shows that he is one of if not the next cabs off the rank.
Craig Overton was part of the touring party in the last tour, taking six wickets in two games at an average of 37.66, and at 6’5” has the height to cause problems, albeit at a slightly slower pace than his twin brother Jamie, who is the same build but slightly faster than his sibling. J. Overton has been renowned as one of the quickest bowlers on the county circuit in recent years, and so will hope that his forthcoming move to Surrey can push him further into the eyes of the selectors.
Given the presence of Broad and Anderson, the chance of an outsider being selected who is a right-arm fast-medium is slim. Despite being one of the leading bowlers in county cricket over the past few years, Ollie Robinson will probably have to count himself unlucky in that he is fighting for a spot behind two of the best pace bowlers in the history of the game, whilst Saqib Mahmood’s inclusion in recent limited-overs squads suggests that they may see him as more of a white-ball bowler for the time being.
Conclusion
England have clearly identified the fact that they need a diverse, varied attack if they wish to win back the Ashes. If Anderson and Broad are still playing then they will be in the squad, and with Curran’s left-armers and the x-factor of Wood and Archer, they too can be key variables in a fully functioning attack. As for the last place, Woakes’ unfavourable record overseas has to count against him, and so the height and speed of either Jamie Overton or Stone will likely see one of them join the squad.