Test Cricket

Virat Kohli’s tough luck with toss – data analysis

Virat Kohli, one of the greatest batsmen of modern era cricket, the best in all three formats has done it all. He has smashed bowlers all around the globe and has become one of the most successful captains of India.

But if there’s one thing that even Virat can’t do is win “the toss

When it comes to flipping the coin, the Indian captain is often on the wrong side. Going by probability laws, the chance of the coin landing in a team captain’s favour is 50 percent. However, in the case of Kohli, the figure appears to be different. Virat Kohli has now lost three out of four tosses during India’s current tour of England. Virat continuous toss losses have become meme material for fans all over the world on social media.

The significance of the toss in cricket cannot be overstated. The team that wins the toss has the option of Batting/Bowling according to prevailing conditions such as pitch, weather, and humidity. The importance of toss rises in the longer format of the game.

Team Win % after winning/losing the toss

To proof the significance of toss on the match results, let us study the 2 charts below.

The home team winning the toss will have 43.96% of winning the watch. Their chance to win will fall by fall to 38.95% if they lose the loss. Similarly, the touring team has a win percentage of 27.86%, if they win the toss, which will fall to 25% if they lose the toss.

Virat Kohli Tuff luck with toss - Cricket Analysis stats data
Home Team Win % after winning the toss
Virat Kohli Tuff luck with toss - Cricket Analysis stats data
Touring Team Win % after winning the toss

Pitches nowadays are prepared to suit the home team, In a country like India, the team winning the toss would like to opt to bat first, to avoid batting in the 4th inning, whereas in SENA countries, the team is likely to prefer to bowl first.

This unfair use of home/away conditions increases the impact of toss on the overall result of the match in recent years.

Virat Kohli – Top Captain, in spite of toss losses

Virat Kohli has drastically transformed the Indian test team and elevated them to new heights. Under his captaincy, India’s test team claimed ICC test Mace four times in a row.

Virat has the third-highest win percentage among all test captains, behind Australia’s S. Waugh and R. Ponting. Now, if we look at the percentage of tosses won, he is in the last place, with a toss win percentage of merely 43.75 percent. It means he had to deal with the most diversity to come in third place. 

Joe Root, England’s captain, is the luckiest of all the captains. He had a 60 percent toss winning percentage and a 49.09 percent match win percentage. Steve Waugh, unquestionably one of the best test captains of all time, holds the record for highest win percentage.

Virat Kohli tuff luck with toss - cricket analysis stats data
Top Captains Match vs Toss win percentage

*Minimum 50 matches captained

Virat vs England in “Coin Toss”

Virat Kohli had a dismal record against toss vs England. His toss winning percentage is as low as 24%. In the recently concluded England tour of India, he only won 2 tosses of 12 matches. His poor luck against England continued in the current test series as he lost 3 out of 4 tosses. 

The situation is so absurd that Virat after winning the toss at Headingley said, “It’s a surprise I won the toss.”

Virat Kohli tuff luck with toss - cricket analysis stats data
Virat vs England in Coin Toss

In the midst of this bad luck, one thing is certain: Virat and the Indian squad have become more resilient to adversity. They don’t rely on tosses and pitches to win games; instead, they rely on their skill and heart. It’ll be interesting to see if Captain Kohli’s fortunes improve in the future.