In the last couple of months, Test cricket has seen some remarkable, at times, even unimaginable fourth-innings heists. England chased down targets in four consecutive Test matches. A few days back, Pakistan chased down 342 with relative ease against Sri Lanka in Galle, a venue where chasing has been historically difficult. So, with batting last in Test matches becoming an increasingly successful result in recent times, will this mark a new chapter in this ever-evolving sport or is this phase an aberration?
2017-2020
Between 2017 and 2020, there were 109 instances of teams batting in the fourth innings. There were only 32 successful chases, with the highest being Sri Lanka’s 391 against Zimbabwe. During this period, there were 47 instances of teams needing to chase more than 200 runs in the final innings. The teams were successful in chasing only on eight occasions (17.02 win%).
Overall, there were significantly higher losses (35) in this period as compared to wins (8) and draws (4). Of the four draws, teams nearly escaped a failed run chase twice – Australia (362/8) vs Pakistan, Dubai 2018 and New Zealand (256/8) vs England, Christchurch 2018.
Since 2021
Since the start of 2021, there have been 58 instances of teams batting in the fourth innings. Of the 58 chases, 27 ended in teams winning the Test. There were 21 losses for the team batting last and the remaining 10 matches ended in a Draw.
Of these 58 innings, 23 ended in teams scoring more than 200 runs; 10 ended in wins. This means that when chasing a target in excess of 200 runs, teams had a 43.47% success rate. The number of wins (10) was more than the losses (9). Of the four drawn matches, only one could’ve resulted in the chasing team losing the match (England vs Australia, Sydney 2022).
There were six run chases where the target was more than 300 runs and four of them were chased successfully. The two drawn matches had scores of 334/5 (India vs Australia, Sydney 2021) and 443/7 (Pakistan vs Australia, Karachi 2022)
The WTC factor
A lot of times in the past, teams have failed to chase due to a negative approach towards run chases. It was a result of teams putting more value on draws to avoid losing in search of a win. However, it all changed with the introduction of the World Test Championship.
With points and qualifications at stake in each WTC match, teams are now finding ways to win the Test rather than saving it. So far, out of 106 WTC Test matches, 90 have ended in results (wins or losses). It means that 84.9% of the matches didn’t end in a draw. Of these 90 wins, 32 have come while chasing (35.56%).
In the last 105 Tests, before the WTC commenced, there were 77 instances of teams chasing a target. Of those, only 21 resulted in successful chases (27.27%). 31 Tests had teams needing more than 200 runs in the final innings to win, but only three resulted in wins.
There were still only five draws in this period before the WTC, but it shows how much teams have shifted their approach from a negative mindset (saving the Test) to a positive mindset (winning) in the fourth innings.
Our opinion
A lot of the recent 200+ run chases have come on the back of individual flashes of brilliance – Kyle Mayers’ 210*, Rishabh Pant’s 89*, Abdullah Shafique’s 160*, Jonny Bairstow’s tons against NZ and IND, to name a few. These are players who have a good T20 record, and they have translated their T20 ability into Test matches.
There might not be a quantifiable way to correlate success in Tests due to batting in T20s, but the above-mentioned performances provide some evidence to suggest that successful T20 players with good batting techniques have enjoyed success in Test matches due to their ability to find ways to score runs.
The recent chases by England came on flatter pitches that didn’t deteriorate much even on the final two days. India had an excellent bowling attack and yet ended up conceding 378 runs. Pakistan chased 344 against an inexperienced, yet potent Sri Lankan spin attack on a Galle pitch that had a lot on offer for the spinners.
To say that chasing has become easier will be a grave injustice to the incredible batting displays that we’ve seen in recent times, especially since June 2022. There might not be a definitive measure to understand the reasons behind the chasing success in recent times, but it could well be down to teams finally liberating their minds from the age-old demons related to chasing in Test matches.