Data Analysis

IPL 2021: The possible outcomes in the race for the final playoff spot

With Royal Challengers Bangalore confirming the third spot in the points table made it clear that it is going to be the third team that will be competing against the table-toppers Chennai Super Kings followed by the second team in the list – the Delhi Capitals.

That leaves the four trailing teams who have almost the same points except the net run rates, KKR edged ahead in the race to secure a position for the play-offs after their previous encounter with a win against Sunrisers Hyderabad.

Also, Punjab, Rajasthan, and Mumbai are listed accordingly at the points table right after KKR and each of the teams is left with one, two, and two fixtures left to play respectively before we encounter the play-offs.

Things are getting quite exciting for the fans as they are wondering if KKR will be able to hold on to their position and win the next match that they have only left before the knock-out stage begins, or if there’s still a chance left for other teams and that will be solely dependable on the results of the remaining fixtures.

A look at the teams that have qualified for play-offs

It is seen that three teams have already qualified for the knock-out stage along with their out-of-the-ordinary performances as a team. It is observed during the second phase of the IPL that how collective efforts coming from the whole team contributed to the overall progress of all these three teams which includes- CSK, DC, and RCB.

The possible outcomes of IPL 2021 cricket analysis stats data
Teams that qualified for Play-offs stats

The yellow army’s success story this season

MS Dhoni and his men-in-yellow enjoy all the privileges by staying at the top of the table with 18 points along with a good positive run rate- the current best of the season.

They are seen to be running a successful campaign, unlike the previous year. Also, one of the most successful franchises in IPL, the CSK has been a raging force this year and especially during their second leg of the IPL 2021.

With the young Ruturaj Gaikwad’s back-to-back success with the bat along with the explosive openings by Faf du Plessis, it has been a wonderful journey for the CSK batters.

Supported by some top-class all-rounders – both Ravindra Jadeja and Moeen Ali are seen to be troubling the opposition with their batting and bowling.

In the CSKs bowling unit, it’s Shardul Thakur, Dwayne Bravo, and Deepak Chahar who have been outstanding throughout the season and are striking constantly for the side with some great spells of bowling.

The Capitals’ charm

The Youngsters Prithvi Shaw, Rishab Pant, and Shreyas Iyer have been batting exclusively since the beginning of the IPL season this year. Along with the likes of their leading scorer Shikhar Dhawan with the bat, DC is proving to be a raging force this season.

The inclusion of some of the best bowlers and their collective effort has been an advantage that the DC is enjoying throughout the season. Their leading wicket-taking Youngster Avesh Khan is constantly performing throughout the season along with striking for DC on several occasions.

Along with the likes of Kagiso Rabadda, A Nortje, and Axar Patel, the DC are a stable yet stronger side with the bowl too.

Another major perk for the success of DC this season is the collective effort they have been putting on different occasions.

The Delhi Capitals are at the second position at the league’s table with 18 points but with a lesser run rate when compared to CSK.

The challenging Royal Challengers Bangalore

With lots of unsuccessful campaigns throughout IPL in the past but with a promising season last year by entering into the Play-offs, RCB has qualified for the knockout round for this year too.

The fans are extremely hoping for some miracle this season from the King’s army. Cricket is a team game that requires exclusive team efforts to obtain desirable results. RCB has been seen to be doing the same and is one of the Mantras for this season.

The energetic performance from the team and King Kohli’s aggression have led the team to taste success for this season. They are the third team to qualify along with 16 points at the table but with a negative run rate out of the three teams at the top.

With explosive opening batting, along with the reliable middle-order consisting of Maxwell along with some of the top-performing bowlers for this season, RCB is proving to be worrying its contenders.

The competition for that valuable fourth spot

KKR has solidified their chances of qualifying with a win over SRH. The remaining seven games will now decide the fate of the 4 teams i.e MI, PBKS, RR, and KKR in the playoff race.

The possible outcomes of IPL 2021 cricket analysis stats data
Scatter plot of net run rate along with max possible achievable points

KKR’s simple solution

KKR are currently enjoying their place at the fourth spot because of their solid net run rate but are still in danger as they will need to win the final encounter against the Rajasthan Royals and confirm their position for the play-offs.

To understand the scenarios, we’ve to scatter plotted the net-run rate and the probable maximum points that the four teams can achieve considering the no. of fixtures that are left.

It is seen that KKR is left with only one last match against the RR and there is a huge possibility that it can be a do or die situation match and winning that will certainly put them on a safer side.

The situation will get difficult if KKR loses the last game. If they lose to RR, their superior NRR still may take them through.

The difficulties of Punjab Kings

With only one match left to play, PBKS is in a critical position this season although they are right next after the Knight Riders. They’re at a stage where hope can only help them through. They need to win their only match against the table-toppers CSK, which is not an easy deal.

Also, the criteria would be to win with a huge margin so that it affects the team’s current net run rate positively.

To understand the scenarios, we’ve to scatter plotted the current net-run rate and the probable maximum points that the four teams can achieve considering the no. of fixtures that are left.

They’ll expect the other contenders to lose as they’ve only one match left which could probably lead them to 12 points while RR and MI still have two games in their hand.

The Rajasthan Royals’ remaining encounters

The Royals’ are left with two important fixtures and it’s not impossible to crack it as well. They have fixtures against MI and KKR in which they’ll require to win both. They have an NRR of -0.453, the lowest among the considered teams, and only wins with big margins can take them to the playoffs.

If RR beats MI and then also beats KKR, they have a clear chance of qualifying into the play-offs.

MI’s limited success throughout the season

MI’s performance throughout this season was not up to the mark or as expected from the five-time champions. No collective efforts were seen which has been one of the major success mantras for the top-performing teams.

With only two fixtures along the way, they have an NRR of -0.453, the lowest among the considered teams. Only wins with big margins can take them to the playoffs.

Even after winning two games, they might not be in a suitable position to qualify because of their lowest net run rate out of all the considered teams. Also, they’ll be hoping for RR and PBKS to lose as they know that it could come down to the slightest of margins in the end, and MI has scraped through into the playoffs in the past.

What can we expect from the final show?

Considering the current form of the teams and the data collected from their last five encounters this season, it is seen that out of the contenders selected for the fourth spot, only KKR has won three out of the last five encounters followed by Punjab, Rajasthan, and Mumbai.

The possible outcomes of IPL 2021 cricket analysis stats data
The stats of last five encounters- KKR, PBKS, RR, and MI

KKRs fortune to qualify for the Play-offs depends upon the fortunes of the above-considered teams. With any possible outcomes, the scenario may surprise everyone as the fourth spot is not finalized and it will be done based on the remaining thrilling encounters.