Data Analysis

Data Analysis: Will the number 4 spot haunt Indian ODI team yet again?

During an interview before the 2019 World Cup, Virat Kohli said he would like to have Faf du Plessis in his team. The choice of a player from Kohli was a testament to the fact that India was still finding a batter who could bat at number four and handle that responsibility well. Du Plessis averaged 66.33 (14 innings) since 2016 at that position. India was looking for consistency.

The next 50-over World Cup is 20 months away, and as of now, Shreyas Iyer has been given a consistent run at the number four spot for India. In this piece, we look at the stats of batters at number four and India’s tactical approach with that position.

Indian Batting at ICC Men's World Cup cricket analysis stats
India had issues with no.4 & no.5 in the 2019 edition

2011 and 2015 editions

Between the 2007 and the 2011 edition, Yuvraj Singh was India’s first option at that position, but Kohli played the majority of the 2011 tournament at number four and had a healthy average of 50 plus. India had their best middle-order batters in Yuvraj and Mahendra Singh Dhoni batting at five and six, which did not put much pressure on Kohli.

In the 2015 edition, Rahane played the maximum innings (six) at the number four position and had an average of 41, striking at more than 80. But between the 2011 and the 2015 edition, there were five players who played more innings than Rahane at that spot. There were better options available for that spot in Kohli and Suresh Raina, but they batted at numbers three and five, respectively.

It was not the first time that India’s number four at a World Cup was someone who was not the original choice, but the batters around them were performing well, and the Indian team stuck with one player for the majority of the tournament.

2019 – Looking for solutions till the last moment

India had the best top order in between the 2015 and 2019 editions. The top three had an average of 58.8. England was second with 46.2 – a difference of 36 runs. With such a solid top three, the middle order (positions four to seven) had less work to do. For comparison, England played 88 matches, and the middle order had 289 innings between them, India in 86 matches had only 261 innings.

India's no.4 at ICC Men's World Cup 2019 cricket analysis stats
Zero 50+ score from a no.4 batter tells you the story

There were 12 players who played at the number four spot across the 86 matches, and Ambati Rayudu got the most chances. Before the World Cup squad was announced, he was certain of a place in the team, but that did not happen.  India ended up playing four players at that position. Shikhar Dhawan’s injury added to India’s issue, as KL Rahul was then given the responsibility of opening the innings.

Since then, Iyer has performed well at that position in 13 innings, with an average of 42. India should look at giving him more opportunities and building his confidence. With Kohli at three and Rahul at five, it could be the perfect trio for India after the openers. Iyer has shown in the IPL that he can control the innings and is a natural striker of the ball when it comes to taking the attacking route.

India's possible no. 3,4 & 5 cricket analysis stats
A consistent run for Iyer can be fruitful for India

Conclusion

The overall team balance has an impact on the role of a particular player in a particular position. Lately, India have had an issue with finding a part-time bowler in their top order. India had the likes of Yuvraj and Sachin Tendulkar in 2011, Raina in 2015, but that was not the case in 2019. That problem still exists. If India does go with the afore-mentioned trio at three, four, and five, they would need to play an all-rounder at six, or else they will limit themselves with only five bowlers. Yes, there is an issue of the number four position, but there are bigger problems in terms of team combination, which just acts as a domino effect.