Here we come to our eighth and final article in our search to find the definitive ‘Best ODI XI’ in the world over the past four years. The positions of our batsmen, all-rounder and wicket-keeper have already been finalised, and so here we are analysing the capabilities of the best bowlers in the game in order to try and fill our final four spots.
With the required number of players within this category, our shortlist has been increased to include a wider field that used before in order to provide a larger data set from which to choose from. Therefore, we have narrowed it down to the top 30 wicket-takers against Test-playing nations since January 1 2016. The list of players to have made the cut is:
Adil Rashid (122 wickets), Rashid Khan (120), Trent Boult (118), Jasprit Bumrah (104), Kuldeep Yadav (102), Kagiso Rabada (96), Imran Tahir (89), Mitchell Starc (88), Chris Woakes (88), Yuzvendra Chahal (88), Liam Plunkett (88), Mustafizur Rahman (83), Jason Holder (82), Hasan Ali (80), Adam Zampa (75), Bhuvneshwar Kumar (72), Pat Cummins (72), Mohammad Nabi (71), Lockie Ferguson (69), Andile Phehlukwayo (69), Mashrafe Mortaza (66), Mitchell Santner (64), Dawlat Zadran (60), Josh Hazlewood (59), Mujeeb Ur Rahman (57), Mohammed Shami (57), Shadab Khan (57), Matt Henry (56), Mohammad Amir (56) and Tim Southee (55).
Economy, Strike-Rate and Average
Looking firstly at a comparison between strike-rate (SR) – how many balls they take to get a wicket – and economy – the amount of runs they concede per over – allows us to highlight those who are more of a wicket threat compared to those who seek to mainly stop the batsman from scoring.
Looking at the graph below, those situated towards the bottom left-hand corner of the graphic – namely, Rashid Khan, Mujeeb and Bumrah – are those who are able to combine a wicket-taking threat with an economical nature too.
Rashid Khan is undoubtedly the best within this section, boasting the lowest SR (26) and the second-cheapest economy (4.14), behind only countryman Mujeeb (3.98) in that regard and just ahead of fellow Afghani Nabi (4.21). It just shows the quality of cricketer – and spinner, in particular – that Afghanistan is producing, with all three of the players with the lowest economy rates spinners hailing from the country.
Whilst Mujeeb sacrifices SR, Bumrah is slightly more leaky in his bowling with an economy of 4.55 – still exceptionally good in the context of the world game, but not enough to claim top spot here. Elsewhere, Santner looks to be more of a ‘holding’ spinner, one who is content enough to apply scoreboard pressure as opposed to seeking victims with his tight, wicket-to-wicket style, as he possesses the fifth-lowest economy but has the highest SR of the entire data set.
As can be clearly witnessed, the vast majority of the group are positioned towards the bottom-right corner, highlighting their ability to take wickets but also be punished through conceding more runs, too. Plunkett is the archetypal example of a bowler who sacrifices leaking more runs in order to try and hunt for more wickets: he has the highest economy of anybody (5.69) but was able to take 88 wickets – joint-eighth most out of the group. Shami (27.8) and Starc (27.9) are two bowlers who are constant wicket-taking threats thanks to their low SR, whilst Ferguson (28.3) is not far behind Plunkett either.
Below we can see an alteration of the graph, with players coloured according to how many wickets they have taken (those with a greener colour have more wickets and those towards the red end have fewer wickets).
As is illustrated, not only does Rashid Khan have brilliant control over his bowling, but he is deadly with it too – taking 120 wickets, bettered only by Adil Rashid. Bumrah is another who manages to be a threat and also tight, whilst Boult, third for wickets with 118, is not quite as economical. As also thought, it can be seen that Santner is one of the least threatening bowlers amongst the sample.
Moving onto a bowler’s average – how many runs they concede per wicket taken – and it is Rashid Khan who continues to set the standard, averaging a meagre 18.03 runs per every wicket he snares.
He is over five runs cheaper than Mujeeb in second with 23.07, demonstrating his clear world-class talents. What makes both his and Mujeeb’s talents even more extraordinary is the fact that they are only 19- and 21-years old respectively; their ability is frightening. It is Bumrah who leads the way for the pacemen at 24.43, shortly followed by Starc at 24.85. Conversely, Southee is the most expensive, averaging 40.72.
Are they better against right- or left-handers?
Moving on, here we shall examine their respective abilities against right- and left-handed batsmen in order to see who are the most complete bowlers and highlight those that may have a clear deficiency towards one or the other.
The first conclusion that can be taken away from this is how frighteningly good Mujeeb is against both types. He has the lowest average against both – 12.97 against right-handers and 10.05 against left-handers – which sees him by far-and-away the stand-out performer, in a league of his own in the bottom-left corner of the graph. Rabada and Zadran are not far behind in being exceptionally good against both batting styles: Rabada sits third against right-handers with an average of 16.63 and fourth against left-handers at 16.78, whilst Zadran is fourth to right-handers (17.05) and second to left-handers (16.26).
The player who is least affected by either style is Adil Rashid, with his average of 27.79 against left-handers being only 0.05 runs higher than he averages against right-handers. There are four other bowlers who also have an average difference of less than one run: Holder (0.11), Rabada (0.15), Zadran (0.79) and Hasan Ali (0.92).
An interesting entry is Imran Tahir. The leg-spinner is the fifth-most effective against right-handers with an average of 17.06, but sits 26th out of 30 for his ability to left-handers, averaging 30.7. It is, therefore, no surprise that he is the player with the greatest discrepancy between both types. Elsewhere, fellow leg-spinner Zampa is the player who appears to favour neither.
A way of finding out who is the most effective against both types is by combining their respective averages against both to form a cumulative average – as is done below. The red area indicates their average against left-handers, with the green their average against right-handers.
Unsurprisingly it is the aforementioned players mentioned situated in the bottom-left corner of the previous graphic who come out best here – namely Mujeeb, Zadran and Rabada – with totals of 23.02, 33.31 and 33.41 respectively – whilst Bumrah (38.61) and Starc (39.84) complete the top five, the quintet being the only players able to boast a cumulative average of sub-40.
At the other end of the spectrum, Zampa is the player with the highest total – 64.07 – whilst interestingly, Adil Rashid and Kuldeep Yadav, who sit first and sixth in the wicket-takers list for this period, are 25th and 24th respectively.
Looking deeper into this, an ‘Overall Average’ can be formed by adding a player’s difference in averages against right- and left-handers onto their cumulative total. This serves to benefit those who are as effective against both and punish those who have a clear deficiency against one form or the other.
Mujeeb still holds the crown, however, Rabada and Zadran switch places by virtue of the South African’s marginally better difference in averages. A beneficiary of this is Bhuvneshwar Kumar, who manages to occupy fourth place at 43.3, whilst West Indian captain Holder is the man to sit in fifth position with his total of 44.08, narrowly squeezing out Woakes (44.38), Starc (44.42) and Bumrah (44.6).
Do they get the best batsmen out?
The final individual skill the players will be assessed on is their ability to remove the best batsmen. Obviously career averages provide a good indication of their ability, but there is the potential for these figures to be skewed depending on how they fare against tail-enders. Therefore, the below graph illustrates their respective averages against top-five batsmen.
Two of the names that have been a feature throughout once again are star performers in this category – Mujeeb and Rabada. They are first and second respectively, with brilliant figures of 14.44 and 20.99, and once again prove their undoubted world-class talents. A fact that highlights Mujeeb’s exquisite aptitude is that he is the only spinner in the top 13 – countryman Nabi being the next highest-ranked slow bowler in 14th. New Zealander Henry is the third-best performing player in this bracket with an average of 22.22, with Amir (23.4) and Woakes not far off his tail (23.99).
Once again, Adil Rashid is not presented favourably here as he possesses the largest average of anybody within the dataset at 49.23, surprising given that he is the man with the most victims. Fellow leg-spinner Rashid Khan also displays a weakness against the better batsmen, averaging 39.91 – only enough to sit 23rd. In fact, they are the two bowlers who struggle most against the top batsmen in comparison to overall – as we can see below.
The following graph presents a bowler’s overall average (green area) within this period in comparison to their average against top-five batsmen (red). Those with a section of green showing perform better against the better batsmen – the more green on display, the more they out-perform against the best.
Rashid Khan and Adil Rashid are the two players with the largest negative difference when comparing their average against their average vs top five batsmen, with differences of -21.88 and -20.1 respectively.
At the other end of the scale, it is Southee who apparently thrives on bowling at the top order, with his average against the top five of 27.51 being 13.21 runs lower than his average against all batsmen in this period – the largest positive difference of anybody within the data set. Honourable mentions should also go to Holder, with a difference of 11.12; that man Mujeeb at 8.63; Mashrafe Mortaza at 8.43; Amir at 8.38; and Rabada at 7.9.
Bowling Selection
Taking all of the above facts and figures into consideration, now comes the time to select the four players to take the spots in our best-of-the-best team. Our unique Bowling Index has generated the scores for each individual using all of the metrics already discussed, and those with the four lowest scores will secure a place in our star-studded side.
Therefore, the overall selections are Mujeeb (unsurprisingly given his outstanding skills that have been highlighted), with an Index of 102.13; Rabada (122.95); Zadran (128.28) and Starc (129.81).
It is testament to the level of cricketer produced by Afghanistan that they have two players in this section, with the likes of Mujeeb, Rashid Khan, Nabi and Zadran all bonafide international superstars. They have lit up the game with their skills, enjoyment and attitude over the past few years, and have demonstrated that they can go toe-to-toe with the best players the game has to offer. They are more than worthy of their places in the side.
So, let’s take a look at the finalised side (the final four slots assigned based on the bowlers’ respective Batting Index:
- Rohit Sharma (IND)
- David Warner (AUS)
- Virat Kohli (IND)
- Ross Taylor (NZ)
- Ben Stokes (ENG)
- Shakib Al Hasan (BAN)
- Quinton de Kock (SA)
- Mitchell Starc (AUS)
- Dawlat Zadran (AFG)
- Mujeeb Ur Rahman (AFG)
- Kagiso Rabada (SA)